EL PASO, Texas (Border Report) – Change is coming to the border on Jan. 20, when President-elect Trump takes office. How profound and lasting such change might be remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Optics will play a big role in Washington, D.C., and in Mexico City.

So says a Virginia-based intelligence analyst who tracks security across the globe and is monitoring rising tensions between Mexico and the United States in recent weeks.

Trump is demanding Mexico stop illegal migration and the flow of fentanyl to the U.S. or he will slap a 25% tariff on Mexican imports. Mexican officials are on record saying they don’t believe him.

The posturing became evident during a recent call between Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. Trump took to social media to say Mexico had agreed to close the border; Sheinbaum said that’s not what was agreed and that Mexico will respect third-country migrants. The leaders clearly were playing to their own audiences.

“There are some tense relations between the U.S. and Mexico and it will be interesting to see how they play out,” said Mike Ballard, director of intelligence for Virginia-based Global Guardian, an international security firm. “I think Mexico might start planning for a worst-case scenario and you will probably see a bit of a crackdown along the border […] But I don’t know if they will be able to hold migration and certainly not be able to stop drug trafficking.”

That’s where the optics come in. Ballard foresees Mexican security forces making a show of force – particularly in border cities – prior to Sheinbaum negotiating with Trump. Drug seizures and a few timely arrests of cartel leaders also are likely.

“There could be some operations that (Mexican) security forces are sitting on, knowing they can deploy and arrest somebody when it suits their interests – they might have that in their back pocket,” Ballard said.

On the U.S. side, a test of how serious Trump is about going after the drug cartels in Mexico is whether the federal government will designate them as foreign terrorist organizations.

In theory, that would facilitate the deployment of American troops “as if they were fighting ISIS or al-Qaeda, the Taliban” or any terrorist network wherever they are, Ballard said, adding he does not believe Trump will do that.

“It’s more of a bluff to bring Mexico to the (negotiating) table – along with the enhanced tariffs,” Ballard said.

Optics also will play big at home for Trump.

Deploying troops to the border surely will grab headlines, but in the end, U.S. Border Patrol agents are more qualified to guard the border. “That would be more of an optics thing than anything. I don’t see the military taking the place of Border Patrol.”

The posturing is likely to favor Trump more than Sheinbaum. Mexico cannot afford to lose U.S. industry – and even the talk of tariffs may scare away future foreign investment in that country, Ballard said.

The two nations are so dependent and used to each other that the tensions between their leaders aren’t likely to permeate to ordinary citizens.

“I think there is probably good sense among the citizens of Mexico that Americans visiting there are not Trump, that they don’t necessarily represent what he represents,” Ballard said. “I don’t’ see Americans vacationing in Cancun or Los Cabos experiencing the tension given how important foreign tourist dollars are for those areas. It’s not as if it was Trump who’s visiting.”